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The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.
Persons: , BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, , Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, Locations: U.S
The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.
Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, , Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, , Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington
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